The 700 Club

Congrats, Barry. 756 (and 757 and 758, for that matter) is all yours! Enjoy it. Whether you were roiding up or not in the locker room, I’m pretty sure 75 other guys were doing the same thing and still couldn’t hit a ball into McCovey Cove from 100 feet away. Let alone do it with a major league fastball. If you cheated, you’ll have to take that up with a higher power. As far as I’m concerned, Bonds has earned this moment in the sun. Let’s emphasis “moment,” because if any of these five sluggers that follow have anything to do with it, the 780, 800 or however many long ones you end up, will last shorter than a decade.

Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees, 32 years old, 503 home runs

Why He’ll Break It- He’s the best player in the game, for one. He knows all there is to know about handling media scrutiny, for two. He’s already got over 500, for three. Hunger for a title should keep him focused, for four. Seven more consistent years and the record is his.

Why He Won’t Make It- Seven more years?! Are you kidding? Why on earth would A-Rod hang around the Bronx (or Chicago or wherever he ends up playing) for seven more years when he already has more money than many countries in the U.N.?

Vladimir Guerrero, L.A. Angels, 31, 356

Why He Will- Vlad is that unique player who’ll swing at the worst possible pitch and it it’ll end up either in left center or over the right field fence. The connection between the ’07 home run derby champ’s eyes and wrist is beyond scary.

Why He Won’t- Numbers don’t appear to be enough to drive the Angels star. Plus, he’s just one year younger than A-Rod but he’s 150 homers behind. Too much catch-up here—even for a super outfielder like Vlad.

Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals, 27, 274

Why He Will- Even when he’s in a year-long “slump” like he is this year (24 dingers, 75, RBI), Phat Albert puts up serious numbers. .310/40/120 is what he’ll likely average the rest of his career.

Why He Won’t- If the Cardinals don’t get better bats around Pujols in the middle of the lineup –OF Chris Duncan is a start- opposing pitchers are gonna start walking him more and more, severely hurting any long ball chances.

Miguel Cabrera, Florida Marlins, 24, 132

Why He Will- If Cabrera stays in South Florida, he’ll be in the perfect place to quietly put up seasons of 40 and 45 homers without much fanfare. Plus, the third baseman isn’t even in his mid 20’s yet. He’ll easily produce big numbers for the next 10, 12 seasons.

Why He Won’t- That is, of course, if he can still fit his uniform. What many of us thought was all muscle a few years back is starting to look more and more like fat. Miguel almost looks like a lighter-skinned Prince Fielder some days.

Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies, 27, 114

Why He Will- The sweet stroke Howard used to bash 58 four-baggers last year and another 32 so far in ’07 is only getting better with time. Plus, with Chase Utley, Aaron Rowand and Jimmy Rollins surrounding him in the order, pitchers can’t ignore him.

Why He Won’t- Nowhere near as, umm, round as Cabrera, Howard might have some weight issues, too. An early injury this year has some wondering about the young man’s durability in a home run pursuit that could last another 12 or 13 seasons.